are pm estimates ever honest?

[Merc_Kage]

Which estimation approach do you prefer when planning projects, and why? I've used both, and honestly neither is great. Top-down usually means someone in leadership picks a budget and timeline, and the project team has to play catch-up. Bottom-up feels more realistic, but by the time you've done the detailed math, management has already locked in numbers that don't match.

In practice, I've had to do a hybrid: bottom-up to know the real cost, top-down to keep leadership happy. Otherwise, you either don't get approval, or you walk straight into failure. So in 2025, is anyone actually seeing PMOs let bottom-up estimates stick, or are we all still massaging numbers to fit someone else's spreadsheet?

 

[FriedClamz]

Which estimation approach do you prefer when planning projects, and why? I've used both, and honestly neither is great. Top-down usually means someone in leadership picks a budget and timeline, and the project team has to play catch-up. Bottom-up feels more realistic, but by the time you've done the detailed math, management has already locked in numbers that don't match.

In practice, I've had to do a hybrid: bottom-up to know the real cost, top-down to keep leadership happy. Otherwise, you either don't get approval, or you walk straight into failure. So in 2025, is anyone actually seeing PMOs let bottom-up estimates stick, or are we all still massaging numbers to fit someone else's spreadsheet?

You're right, it feels like we're always fighting an uphill battle. Most of us are in the same boat.
In my experience, top down estimates almost always win because they're based on business strategy, not the day-to-day work. The hybrid approach you're using is the most effective way to be a successful PM.
It's not about being dishonest, it's about translating the technical reality of a bottom up estimate into a language that management understands and will approve. Y
ou're giving them the number they want while secretly tracking the real one to manage risk